Can you use a digital camera to capture the screen?
I suspect that this is the remnant of a program (or virus) that has been removed. Windows is trying to find it (and can't) so it pops up the dialog box.
Since the file name changes, I'd suspect that it's a result of a virus rather than a known program.
Try this free, online scan: http://safety.live.com/
It will not only scan for malware, but will also try to fix problems with your registry (where this bugger is probably coming from).
Also, you can use this free app to check your startups: http://www.sysinternals.com/Utilities/Autoruns.html
Normally I recommend this startup app: http://www.mlin.net/StartupCPL.shtml
But since this is a particularly strange problem I'd suggest using the more complicated application.
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