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Microsoft's optimistic best case for Windows 10

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#1 darkbit


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Posted 26 July 2015 - 02:55 AM

Only a few days left and it has got me thinking....


Windows 10 marks the first time that:


1) Windows has been given away for "free"

2) Microsoft has pushed an 'update' nagware to constantly remind users that you have one year to grab a free copy

3) Microsoft told OEM's they no longer have to unlock secureboot and can lock down to only Windows 10 bootable


We are at the critical junction where the desktop and general computing has matured. Mom and Pops aren't going to "downgrade" back to Windows 7 like when during the Vista era when people went back to XP in droves. (and with OEM lockdown they can't do it anyway!) and the vast majority of consumers don't build their own PCs anymore. 


With DirectX 12 being the carrot dangle for PC games, and with the offer of "free if claimed within a year" and the constant reminder from the Windows updates, I see the majority of Windows 7 users could be on board with Windows 10 by this time next year. If so, Windows 10 will have more than 70% of desktop OS marketshare within just one year, far surpassing anything that ever came before it. 


With everyone on Windows 10, Microsoft will capture a larger percentage of the search engine pie. Bing will be baked into Windows 10, even into Cortana and the start menu and OS search, meaning it will be a big blow to Google. When chrome came out with the omnisearch where one could do google search within the address bar without having to go to Google.com it was a novelity, now who doesn't search in the url address bar? Microsoft takes the concept one step further, gets rid of needing to input query into a browser, can just do it at the OS level from the start menu search! Also the future may be voice, and Digital Assistants like Siri, Cortana, Google Now will duke it out for marketshare. With Windows 10's device agnostic approach this could spell the end of Google's search dominance! If Windows 10 can get a significant portion of users hooked on Cortana's ecosystem that means less revenue for Google. 


Plus, Hololens is set to be a game changer and could succeed where facebook's Oculus has failed to deliver or Google's glasses has flopped. This could usher into the next wave of computing in which MS is set to capitalize. 


Firefox is basically dead, so it is just Chrome and IE. Edge is threatening to de-thrown Chrome in that regard as well. It will be modern and more secure and have a reading mode that gets rid of ads, hurting Google the most at this point because they have most to lose. 


Microsoft thinks the future is going cloud and mobility of experience. They are targeting the nexus between individual and corporations. Devices are just dummy terminal endpoints and even servers become nothing more than edge distribution to the hybrid cloud. Microsoft plans to use Windows 10 has a jumping board that enables users to leverage it others offerings such as Office 365, Azure, HyperV, SCOM, Windows as a service, Zune, Xbox Live, Games For Windows Live, Windows Phone, etc etc etc....


With the IoT version that is free, this is a direct threat to Android and Microsoft wants Windows 10 to be embedded in all electronic devices from space ships to jet cars, etc.... 


Now there is talks that Microsoft has partnered with Facebook and its API to integrate that into its Universal apps and the Windows store and to lure and entice developers to the platform. This is ripe with opportunity to gain critical mass and to achieve threshold. 


E#veryone these days, Google, Facebook, Microsoft all trying to get on the online shopping pie and kill Amazon. The first to get their first will win big. 

Edited by darkbit, 26 July 2015 - 02:59 AM.

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#2 rp88


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Posted 26 July 2015 - 01:43 PM

"...embedded in all electronic devices from space ships..."

Fortunately NASA has the right idea, they seem to use linux based systems for most things ( the International Space Station switched from windows to linux a few years back) and plenty of other developers of advanced vehicles use linux as well, the US navy seems to be doing so on the new Zumwalt class destroyer.

So I think we can be confident that there won't be any cases in the near future of: a probe refusing to transmit it's scientific data back to earth because it is too busy hogging the NASA deep space network downloading mandatory driver updates, or a warship deciding it needs to restart during the middle of a battle because it decides that changing the litas symbol into a euro is much more important than tracking missiles on radar...

Edited by rp88, 26 July 2015 - 01:43 PM.

Back on this site, for a while anyway, been so busy the last year.

My systems:2 laptops, intel i3 processors, windows 8.1 installed on the hard-drive and linux mint 17.3 MATE installed to USB

#3 brainout


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Posted 26 July 2015 - 02:51 PM

Well, darkbit, that's a good summary of MSFT intent, but now let's look at the dark bits (pun intended):


1. MSFT stuff borks people's machines.

2. Updates are mandatory, and the very word 'mandatory' begets rebellion.

3. Bing sucks.  So people will switch to Google anyway.

4. Due to #1 and #2, there will be a huge backlash in public on the 'net telling you how to turn Cortana off (can't uninstall her or Bing, but can turn off).

5. Linux in certain flavors like Mint, is indeed plug and play for surfing.  Really, the only thing I need Windows for now, are programs I can't run in Linux, and that number is ever less.  Since Linux can be installed to an external drive or stick, the more folks find out how to do that, the more they will use their Windows machine with plugged-in Linux.


So all those things will keep people on older Windows, and likely motivate them to move to Linux over the next few years.


So I see a high Win10 adoption over the next six months, but by then #1-#5 will be clearer, and so the change to Win10 will drop off a lot.  By Year 2, If even 250 million adopt (far lower than 70%), I'll be surprised.  Even if higher, adoption is not usage.  It's free, so why not download it.  But after the hassles are manifest, then usage will plummet.   So all the scenario MSFT hopes to accomplish, well.. won't happen.


Just thinking out loud.  Never casting any opinion in stone.

Edited by brainout, 26 July 2015 - 02:53 PM.

(Away, Notifications Off) AUDIT PREMISES, my guidon.  -- brainout or brainouty on vimeo or Youtube, domain brainout.net

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