Eugene Kaspersky has published an article entitled
Changes in the antivirus industry, much of which focuses on the impact of MS's entry into the security arena and market.
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Over the past few years, the antivirus industry has undergone some major changes. The market leader has changed (McAfee has lost ground to Symantec), some independent antivirus companies have either disappeared from the market or have been taken over (the Romanian company RAV and the Australian company VET), and new players (BitDefender, ClamAV) have appeared.
The major factors "currently influencing the antivirus industry":
Factor 1: Continuing criminalization of the Internet
Factor 2: Increased variety of malware and attack methods
Factor 3:
Microsoft
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Microsoft is going to be seriously focussing on the security solutions market; this will include developing antivirus solutions. The antivirus industry is in a state of shock - everyone remembers Netscape and other independent projects, which either significantly lost market share or disappeared altogether after Microsoft produced similar products. Microsoft is planning to bring the following to the market:
*antivirus for home PCs
*antivirus for workstations (planned for the future)
*solutions for MS Exchange (using the multi-engine Antigen from Sybari)
Of course, the appearance of this commercial giant will be a heavy blow to other manufacturers. But just how heavy will the blow be?
You'll have to read the entire article for Kaspersky's analyses of what the answer to that question might be:
http://www.kaspersky.com/cyberthreats?chapter=188361044
One thing that is unclear to me is if the multi-engine Anitgen will be available to home users, which it doesn't appear to be at present.
Related links:
http://www.microsoft.com/antigen/default.mspx
http://www.sybari.com/
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